Henry Cuellar
Texas's 28th congressional district
TX-28 Midterms Intelligence
Cuellar’s 28th is a classic South Texas border seat: heavily Hispanic (75%), young, working-class, and culturally moderate, with the incumbent surviving by fitting the district better than the national party. After 21 years, he remains a durable Democratic brand, but the district is no longer safely blue—Democrats took just 52.8% here, and the seat has moved sharply right, with an R shift of +8. Immigration and border management are not abstract issues here; they are the organizing fact of district politics, shaping how voters hear everything from trade to public safety to federal competence.
For advocates, this is a persuasion district, not a base-mobilization play. Economic stress is real—15.8% poverty and 21.4% uninsured—so messages should tie policy to cost, access, and local stability, not ideological purity. The sweet spot is pragmatic: border security plus legal pathways, infrastructure tied to commerce, and workforce or health investments framed as helping families who work. Nationalized partisan messaging will underperform; validators from local business, health, law enforcement, and community networks matter more than party cues.
Economic & Demographic Snapshot
Data sourced from U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates (2017-2021 vs. 2019-2023). All figures are statistical estimates with 90% confidence level.
Texas District 28 Demographics
Median Age 33.7 (vs 38.5) · Homeownership 68.3% (vs 65.5%) · Bachelor’s+ 21.2% (vs 33.7%) · Poverty 15.8% (vs 12.4%) · Income $65,728 (vs $37,585)
Age Distribution
Skews younger than the national average (median age 33.7 vs 38.5 nationally). The largest age cohort is 10–19 at 16.1%.
Race & Ethnicity
A majority-minority district. Hispanic residents are the largest group at 75%. Also significant: White (35.5%).
* Hispanic includes respondents of any race. Racial categories include both Hispanic and non-Hispanic individuals.
Education
Only 21.2% hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, significantly below the 33.7% national average. 22% of residents lack a high school diploma.
Income Distribution
Median household income is $65,728, well above the $37,585 national median.
Housing
Homeownership at 68.3% (vs 65.5% nationally). Median rent is $1,132. Median home value is $201,800.
How People Get to Work
Car-dependent: 74.4% drive alone to work. Average commute is 25.5 minutes.
Texas District 28 FAQ
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