Representative Kevin Kiley, Independent from California

Kevin Kiley

California's 3rd congressional district

CA-3 Midterms Intelligence

Kevin Kiley sits in a district that looks affluent, older, and increasingly Republican, but not immovably so. CA-03’s R+11 lean and recent rightward drift give him a sturdy base, yet the seat’s 89% competitiveness score suggests a coalition that still has to be managed, not merely assumed. The defining constituency fact is structural: this is a high-homeownership, high-cost district where voters are protective of quality-of-life, skeptical of Sacramento, and responsive to messages about competence, local control, and public order.

For advocates, this is not a grievance district so much as a governance district. With median income at $106,071, homeownership at 73.9%, and seniors at 21.9%, campaigns land best when framed around protecting household stability, property values, schools, and access to care—not ideological transformation. Kiley’s issue mix points to openings on education, labor flexibility, tech infrastructure, and crime; the pressure point is persuading pragmatic center-right voters that your ask reduces disruption and improves service delivery.

Representative Kevin Kiley represents California's 3rd congressional district, serving 778,710 constituents. The district has an estimated median household income of $106,071 and an unemployment rate of 5%.

Economic & Demographic Snapshot

778,710Population
↑ 13,844
$106,071Median Incomenat'l $37,585
↑ $6,649
5%Unemploymentnat'l 3.5%
↑ 0.5%
5.1%Poverty Ratenat'l 12.4%
↓ 0.1%
73.9%Homeownershipnat'l 65.5%
→ no change
$1,950Median Rentnat'l $1,163
↑ $202
0.7%Public Transitnat'l 5%
→ no change
26.2 minMean Commutenat'l 26.4 min
↓ 0.2 min

Data sourced from U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates (2017-2021 vs. 2019-2023). All figures are statistical estimates with 90% confidence level.

California District 3 Demographics

Median Age 43.7 (vs 38.5) · Homeownership 73.9% (vs 65.5%) · Bachelor’s+ 41.6% (vs 33.7%) · Poverty 5.1% (vs 12.4%) · Income $106,071 (vs $37,585)

Key Issues for This District
Rent burden

Age Distribution

Skews older than the national average (median age 43.7 vs 38.5 nationally). The largest age cohort is 60–69 at 13.7%.

Race & Ethnicity

White residents are the largest group at 71.7%. Also significant: Hispanic (15%).

* Hispanic includes respondents of any race. Racial categories include both Hispanic and non-Hispanic individuals.

Education

41.6% hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, above the 33.7% national average. 15.1% hold a post-graduate degree.

Income Distribution

Median household income is $106,071, well above the $37,585 national median.

Housing

Homeownership at 73.9% (vs 65.5% nationally). Median rent is $1,950. Median home value is $651,300.

How People Get to Work

65.7% drive alone. Average commute is 26.2 minutes.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year Estimates
Data represents 5-year statistical estimates for increased reliability.

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