Costa is a 20-year Democratic fixture in a Central Valley seat that still behaves like a swing district: D+5 on paper, but rated 95% competitive with a recent R shift of +3. The defining electorate is young and heavily Latino (64.9% Hispanic; median age 31.9), layered over an economy anchored by farmwork and food processing. Costa’s Agriculture and Foreign Affairs posts reinforce his brand as a pragmatic deliverer on water, trade, and labor-dependent growth, not a culture-war Democrat.

For advocates, the leverage point is economic insecurity: 18.0% poverty and 28.4% SNAP create receptivity to pocketbook and access frames. Campaigns win by tying policy to irrigation reliability, food prices, and healthcare affordability, while signaling respect for farm jobs and small business. The strategic twist is turnout and persuasion: mobilize younger Latino voters while inoculating against “Democrats don’t get the Valley” attacks by centering local deliverables over national messaging.